Two more of Saturday’s matches are given the Scout Notes treatment as we continue to nibble away at Gameweek 17.
This time, it’s Brentford 0-2 Nottingham Forest and West Ham United 1-1 Brighton and Hove Albion.
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FOREST’S DEFENCE IMPRESSES YET AGAIN
Nottingham Forest’s sixth clean sheet of the season was, perhaps after the shut-out at Anfield, their most impressive yet.
Brentford were, and still are, a side top of the home league table. Their eight – admittedly favourable – fixtures at the Gtech before this match: won seven, drawn one.
The Bees are also first for goals scored (26), xG (18.9) and big chances (35) on home soil.
But they were nullified after a bright start on Saturday, having just three shots from open play – albeit two very good chances for Mikkel Damsgaard (£5.0m) and Kristoffer Ajer (£4.4m). Four efforts from set pieces topped up the shot count but it all amounted to an xG of just 0.89, their lowest in west London all season.
Ola Aina (£4.9m) is, remarkably as we approach the halfway point of the season, top of all FPL defenders for points. Nikola Milenkovic (£4.6m) is in sixth. Both defenders have been on the scoresheet twice this season, Aina netting his latest goal on Saturday.
On the rare occasions the backline has been breached (they sit third for lowest expected/actual goals conceded), the formerly maligned Matz Sels (£4.7m) has been excellent. His save from Ajer was particularly superb.
You’d stop short of recommending a Forest defender for Gameweek 18 but thereafter, there’s three very decent clean sheet chances in four Gameweeks.
HOPE FOR PEDRO, WOOD AND MBEUMO
There were blanks all round for the well-owned Bryan Mbeumo (£7.6m), Chris Wood (£6.6m) and Joao Pedro (£5.9m). All three came close to registering an attacking return, however.
Mbeumo tormented Neco Williams (£4.3m) early on, with at least three teasing crosses almost converted by teammates. It was he who nodded the ball back to Ajer for that Sels wonder save, too.
Speaking of wonder saves, Wood was only denied an 11th goal of the season by an excellent Mark Flekken (£4.5m) stop. The Kiwi striker produced a rare air-kick when well placed in the build-up to Aina’s goal, too.
Over in east London, a shotless Pedro – whose Brighton side looked like they were missing Danny Welbeck (£5.7m) more than ever as Georginio Rutter (£5.5m) turned in a listless showing up top – was more creator. After providing a cute chip for Kaoru Mitoma‘s (£6.5m) saved effort, he then saw another assist go up in smoke when Pervis Estupinan (£5.1m) slipped at a vital moment.
Estupinan, incidentally, is now the leading defender for chances created over the last five Gameweeks, adding another three here.
Fabian Hurzeler ‘frustrated & disappointed’. He told me #bhafc striker Danny Welbeck won’t be available for Brentford H. Felt performances of Wieffer (came off with thigh injury) & Gruda were positive.
— Johnny Cantor 🎙 (@johnnycantor_) December 21, 2024
The reasons to be cheerful? Pedro and Mbeumo face each other’s defences next weekend. Brighton are without a clean sheet in nine. Brentford have only one of those all season and are beset by injuries at the rear. Already without Rico Henry (£4.3m), Aaron Hickey (£4.3m), Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m) and Sepp van den Berg (£4.1m), the Bees saw Mads Roerslev (£4.3m) come off with a head wound and Ajer exit the stadium on crutches.
As for Wood, it’s Tottenham Hotspur up next. Say no more…
BOWEN BACK OUT WIDE… THEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AGAIN
Niclas Fullkrug (£6.7m) got his first league start for the Hammers – and a dismal showing suggested he’s not going to be the answer to West Ham’s years-long struggle to find a ruthless striker.
Jarrod Bowen (£7.4m), back on the right to accommodate Fullkrug up top, offered much more through the middle after the German’s 58th-minute departure. Lo and behold, a minute after the substitution, Bowen had played a part in West Ham’s equaliser when his saved shot was followed in by Mohammed Kudus (£6.2m).
Playing Bowen up top also has the added benefit of allowing Kudus to operate on the right flank (he is frequently crowbarred into the team on the left), where he looks so much better.
The favourable fixture run is almost up for the Hammers. Southampton away on Boxing Day represents one last hurrah before a sequence of matches in Gameweeks 19-26 that leaves them bottom of the Season Ticker.
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