FPL notes: Forest delight, Pedro hooked + unlucky Isak

Continuing the Double Gameweek 24 Scout Notes is a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) round-up of Newcastle United v Fulham and Nottingham Forest v Brighton and Hove Albion.

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The numbers and graphics you see in this article come from our Premium Members Area. Here, you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.

DID YOU SELL WOOD?

Exactly 526,747 managers sold Chris Wood (£7.0m) heading into Gameweek 24, with the two matches of Liverpool and Everton having a huge impact on decisions. But a breathtaking scoreline at City Ground caused instant regret amongst the community.

Typically, the Forest forward duly bagged a hat-trick versus one of his former clubs. By staying narrowly onside for both a header and a tap-in, before converting his penalty, the 33-year-old’s haul ensures he’s now this season’s top-scoring FPL forward.

Such an efficient one, too. 17 goals by the start of February but his 45 overall shots don’t even rank inside the top 25. By comparison, Crystal Palace’s Eberechi Eze (£6.7m) has scored twice from 65 attempts.

ABOVE: Player with at least four goals, ranked by their conversion rate of shots to goals.

Serious contenders for Champions League qualification, Forest’s confidence wasn’t dented by last week’s 5-0 hammering at Bournemouth. The potential problem of a low goal difference is gone thanks to this stunning bounce-back result. Perhaps Brighton will continue this chain of thrashings versus Chelsea on Valentine’s Day?

One final thought on Wood. He seems fixture-proof and continues to prove FPL managers wrong. But Forest lost the reverse fixture to each of their next four opponents – Fulham, Newcastle, Arsenal, Manchester City – and he blanked in all of them.

FOREST MIDFIELDERS

Joining Wood on three attacking returns were Morgan Gibbs-White (£6.4m) and Anthony Elanga (£5.3m), as Forest racked up 3.23 expected goals (xG).

It puts Gibbs-White on four goals and six assists in his last 10 matches. His cross forced Lewis Dunk (£4.2m) to put the ball in his own net before the former Wolverhampton Wanderers man headed home an Elanga corner to make it 2-0. Later on, he was pulled down by Tariq Lamptey (£4.4m) at another set-piece, winning the spot kick.

Speaking of Elanga, he truly loves setting up Wood. He provided both of the New Zealander’s open-play goals, meaning that he’s another whose recent form averages one return per match – three goals and six assists in nine.

This duo are intriguing differentials for those determined to skyrocket up rankings and mini-leagues.

NECO NETS

Meanwhile, a backline that recently let in five goals at Bournemouth and two at home to Southampton recovered by recording their 10th clean sheet of the campaign. It’s joint-most alongside Liverpool.

So good news for the many owners of Ola Aina (£5.4m), Matz Sels (£5.0m) and Nikola Milenkovic (£4.8m), although it was Neco Williams (£4.4m) who was able to get on the scoresheet and reach 12 points. The Welsh full-back costs less than them and has started 10 successive league games.

These upcoming four matches make Williams a no-go for now but he’ll be back on the radar from Gameweek 29. It should also be said that Forest were fortunate not to concede here – which reads weird in a 7-0 win, admittedly – and they have mixed underlying stats. Just 13th-best at preventing shots from opponents (318), yet they’re up in second for restricting big chances (36).

Brighton threatened enough to force Sels into six saves – the most of Gameweek 24, as of Monday evening. Furthermore, a Danny Welbeck (£5.5m) shot struck the bottom of the crossbar and was millimetres from being fully over the line. Those without Forest’s defence can feel a bit unlucky that the clean sheet came.

JOAO PEDRO HOOKED AT HALF-TIME

The Seagulls’ heaviest league defeat since 1958 was a bad way to follow a home loss to Everton. Five players ended with a negative FPL score.

Pre-match, there was plenty of curiosity at Brighton’s lineup. Fabian Hurzeler couldn’t continue with the Carlos Baleba (£5.0m) and Yasin Ayari (£5.0m) partnership because of muscle problems, so his central midfield paired Jack Hinshelwood (£4.9m) – starting for the first time in three months after a knee injury – with attack-minded forward Georginio Rutter (£5.1m).

ABOVE: Hinshelwood was left stranded in Brighton’s midfield

Unsurprisingly, it quickly went wrong. Three substitutions took place at half-time, one of which removed FPL letdown Joao Pedro (£5.5m). The Brazilian is in horrific form, netting once in 12 matches and that was a penalty.

Expect the mass abandonment from managers to continue, though he did set up a couple of chances in 45 minutes. One was a threatening Yankuba Minteh (£5.0m) attempt that hit Sels.

NEWCASTLE PLAYING A RISKY GAME

At the same time, Newcastle lost further ground on Forest because of another silly home loss. In a huge blow to their Champions League hopes, the Magpies have suffered St James’ Park defeats to Brighton, West Ham United, Bournemouth and Fulham.

Maybe they were distracted by Wednesday’s huge EFL Cup semi-final second leg versus Arsenal. But they’re taking a huge risk by selling Miguel Almiron without a replacement – essentially, their European hopes hinge on Jacob Murphy (£5.1m) staying fit.

It was he who put them one up on Saturday. Anthony Gordon (£7.6m) provided the ball from out wide but the popular FPL midfielder missed out on an assist because the pass was intended for Alexander Isak (£9.5m) until a defensive touch diverted it.

Beforehand, a Sandro Tonali (£5.5m) screamer collided with the crossbar, something that Isak also hit in the second half. Between that and setting up Joe Willock‘s (£4.7m) close-range air shot, the Swede’s 6.85 million owners were unlucky to see him blank.

It was similar for Gordon, creator of three chances plus two of his own, taking seven touches inside the box.

Newcastle needed a win here, as fixtures are about to toughen. Trips to Man City and Liverpool sandwich a big game against Forest.

FULHAM’S POSSIBLE DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 25

That explains why three of the four most-sold players since the deadline belong to Eddie Howe’s side – Isak, Gordon and Lewis Hall (£5.1m).

In a clash of highly-owned attacking left-backs, Hall was bettered by Fulham’s Antonee Robinson (£5.1m). The American’s 10th assist of the season set up Raul Jimenez‘s (£5.6m) deflected equaliser – one of six shots from the cheap forward.

Funnily enough, he was the week’s second-most sold after Wood but now, with four goals in six, he suddenly looks appealing should Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur form a Double Gameweek 25. Friday’s bombshell announcement confirmed this will happen should Spurs reach the EFL Cup final.

Investment will then escalate for a side with only two defeats in 12, about to play multiple home matches in the same Gameweek.