The Digest – Gameweek 27

As the fixture list presents Fantasy managers with both famine and feast in the forthcoming month, we focus on a forgotten striker beginning to find his feet again. The growing resilience on show at Norwich and the Fantasy decline of a certain Uruguayan are also under discussion as many begin to reassess their frontlines in preparation for the run-in:

THE PLAYER

Signed in the January transfer window, Hull City’s Nikica Jelavic had endured a little over a season outside the starting line-up at Everton. In contrast to his first campaign with the Toffees, where he averaged fewer than 100 minutes per goal after arriving in the winter transfer window, Jelavic became a shadow of his former self last term when his confidence and scoring dried up.

Steve Bruce’s shrewd acquisition of the Croatian last month, along with Shane Long from West Brom, is beginning to pay handsome dividends as last weekend’s 4-0 away win at Cardiff demonstrated. Jelavic has struck up an immediate rapport with his strike partner and his brace against the Bluebirds took his tally to three in as many matches.

Hull’s upcoming fixtures also look inviting, with four games in their next six at the KC Stadium. This sees the Tigers welcome the fragile defences of Newcastle, West Brom and Swansea to Humberside – last night’s FA Cup win over Brighton means the Baggies clash is the first of two fixtures in double Gameweek 31 for Bruce’s side, who also travel to West Ham the following Wednesday. Having already played for Everton in the competition, a cup-tied Jelavic can therefore look forward to a rest in early March before returning to league duties.

Now down to just 6.9 in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, Jelavic is starting to suggest he could make an excellent short-term differential in the mid-priced third striker bracket, at a time when many other forwards are hit by blanks and European and FA cup rotation over the coming month. As our recent members articles have shown, his goal hauls of late are no fluke, with the Tigers supplying him with numerous opportunities inside the area – his underlying statistics are certainly worthy of our consideration.

Many will remember Jelavic’s instant Premier League impact when he joined Everton from Glasgow Rangers, running up 11 goals and finishing as the club’s top scorer after playing just a dozen games. He may not quite hit those heady heights but the former Toffee clearly has the form and fixtures to maintain his recent displays and help Hull kick away from the relegation battle.

THE TEAM

Norwich City were unlikely to have featured in many 2013 investment recommendations with heavy maulings dished out at the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City in the first half of the season. This year, however, Chris Hughton’s men have been made of sterner stuff – yet to concede at Carrow Road in 2014, with notable shut outs against City and Tottenham proving they can defend against the best.

The Canaries have no blank Gameweeks on the horizon, though could, realistically, only have a window of seven games to save their fate from relegation. A look ahead to the end of the season sees showdowns with Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in their final four matches – by some distance, that’s the toughest run-in of any side, according to the fixture schedule.

The upside of this daunting finish means Norwich have a less challenging fixture list in the upcoming seven matches. Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom are next to visit Carrow road, whilst trips to Aston Villa, Southampton, Swansea and Fulham all offer the opportunities for vital points against many of their rivals for the drop – clearly, Hughton will be looking to wrap up survival before Gameweek 35 comes along, then.

Fantasy managers are most likely to look for returns from Norwich’s budget-friendly defence, with Martin Olsson (4.3) looking the best value from those considering a defensive swap to the men in yellow. At 5.0, John Ruddy is the costliest option amongst Hughton’s rearguard but he’s vindicated that price and sits third amongst goalkeepers – only Wojciech Szczesny and Petr Cech have picked up more points that the 4%-owned stopper.

Robert Snodgrass has also made a case for our attention in recent weeks, with two goals in his last three appearances including Sunday’s vital winner against Tottenham. Priced at just 5.9 and with an ownership of only 3.4%, he offers a genuine, in-form differential to Fantasy managers seeking to freshen up their midfields prior to the forthcoming period of rotation uncertainty and blank gameweeks. Often a favourite last season, returning an impressive 152 Fantasy points and delivering six goals and nine assists, the Norwich playmaker looks the key figure as Hughton attempts to navigate that upcoming series of relegation six-pointers.

THE TALKING POINT

As Liverpool continue their excellent form and keep themselves firmly in the title race, Luis Suarez’ dip in form has proven significant right across the Fantasy games. The displays of Daniel Sturridge since returning to the starting line-up have easily eclipsed the Uruguayan and Fantasy managers who passed on the opportunity to swap to the England man or indeed own the ‘SAS’ have suffered the consequences as Sturridge closes in on Ruud van Nistelrooy’s all-time consecutive scoring record.

Those showing captaincy loyalty to Suarez over the last six weeks have been provided with a steady dribble of five assists but only a single goal. In FPL terms, Sturridge has outscored him by 66 points to 32 points over that period – a 68 point swing if you handed the former Chelsea man the armband instead.

A failure to find the net in the last four Gameweeks suggests the purple patch that produced 18 goals in 11 appearances earlier in the season is well and truly over for Suarez. For so long, the South American’s output was intrinsically linked to Liverpool’s prospects but, in spite of his slump, the Merseysiders continue to flourish and are now the league’s highest scoring team – Jordan Henderson, Philippe Coutinho, Raheem Sterling and Steven Gerrard have all chipped in over the last few matches.

The Fantasy returns are only one factor, though. One look at the members section shows Suarez continues to be strongly involved in Liverpool’s attacking play – he’s actually had more chances than Sturridge in recent matches but his finishing has plummeted at a time when his fellow forward has become far more clinical than before. Indeed, it is probably his continued impressive contributions that have caused more Fantasy managers to ‘stick’ rather than ‘twist’ up to this point, but the time may be coming to re-consider this stance.

This afternoon’s confirmation of a double Gameweek 31 (car, SUN) is likely to see massive investment in both, though with two road trips and a blank in the next three Gameweeks, the schedule could be a little kinder. Following this, the next three home games (TOT, MCY, CHE) may force many into making a big decision over the pair, whilst the imminent return of Sergio Aguero in time for City’s anticipated trio of double Gameweeks will also play a major factor.

Going without attacking coverage of Brendan Rodgers’ swashbuckling team altogether is clearly unwise for the remainder of the season. Whilst the idea of parting company with Suarez is not one to take lightly, and could easily backfire, a combination of Sturridge’s form, Liverpool’s fixtures and a number of yet-to-be decided doubles for other clubs may persuade some to consider a scenario that was looked on as unthinkable just a few weeks ago: Is Suarez still essential?